Very early on in my running career, someone told me about marathon pace predictors.
The most popular one is McMillan's, which is found here.
The way it works is you put in an actual recent race time and it will calculate what you should be able to run at other distances (assuming proper training).
You can also do it in reverse, putting in a recent marathon time, and seeing how fast you should be able to run a shorter race.
I don't know exactly how the science/numbers behind the predictor works. It obviously doesn't assume that you can run your 5k pace for a marathon, but I don't know exactly what factor it increases your time by to extrapolate from your current time. And of course there are questions about how accurate any prediction is. The old version of the McMillan calculator had a warning (and it might still be there, I just haven't looked) indicating that the longer and the more recent your "actual" race time is, the more accurate your "predicted" time will be. So if you ran a 20 miler at just a bit faster than your marathon pace, you're likely to be able to sustain your marathon pace. While if you run a super fast 5k, it's not necessarily true that you'll be able to perform at the same level for hours on end.
The predictor has always been interesting to me. I can see what distances are my strongest (they predict the fastest marathon), and what distances are ones where I chronically underperform (predicting the slowest marathon).
Thus far, my mile and my 5k PRs predict me very close to my goal marathon time for Berlin this September. The problem with looking at my mile and 5k predictions is that both my mile and 5k PRs are old. My weakest distance is the 15k (I also have very weak 8k and 20 mile times, but those are old or are from training races). But a lot of my PRs, even recent ones, predict me very close to my actual current marathon PR.
I start training for Berlin in about two more weeks. I've run two 5ks very recently, and one half (two days ago), and all three of those predict me in the exact same time range for a marathon -- less than 2 minutes' difference! Which makes me think there's something to be said for the predictor. But what I am especially happy to see is that the 90 second window based on my 3 recent races as a predictor all show me getting a marathon PR by about 4-5 minutes. For me, when I look at the predictor with my current 5k time, it estimates that I can run marathon pace miles nearly 2 minutes slower than my mile PR, and just over a minute per mile slower than my 5k PR mile pace. Looking at actual recent race times instead of my all-time PRs, my current 5k race time has me slowing down just over 1 minute per mile to run the marathon. Do-able I hope.
While a PR of 4-5 minutes is not the 11 minute PR that I want to see in Berlin, it would be one step closer to that ultimate 11 minute goal. So all in all, my spring focus on speed training seems to have gone pretty well. I have gotten my race times closer to where they were before my 2012 season of running with a weight vest. And at least now (according to the predictors, for what they're worth), I've set myself up as best as I can to train for a PR at the marathon.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Monday, May 13, 2013
FMM: Questions and Answers
Ah, how can it be Monday again? Our weekend was nice.
My stepson is home with us for another few days and he cooked dinner Friday night -- very good. The main dish, however, was fish, which I can't eat. So it was really more dinner cooked for my husband, which he loved. And my stepson made tons of roasted vegetables that were for me.
Saturday was a low-key day. Hubby was on a cleaning tear and picked up lots of clutter and even did some garage floor cleaning. Wow! We went out to eat and generally spent a lot of time around the house. I don't know if I mentioned it, but I got promoted a few weeks ago. One of the attorneys I hire regularly for cases in Pennsylvania sent me some personalized M&Ms. My name on half of them, my new title on the other half. I made "promotion cookies" but one sheet resulted in disaster. Yikes!!! I couldn't even tell you what happened, I think I was using one hand it was just off balance. No burns, and fortunately just one sheet was lost.
Sunday was another race -- a half marathon this time. Did I mention that my schedule has races 6 weekends in a row, then one weekend off, then one more race? It will be a total of four 5ks, 2 half marathons, and one 4 mile race. I'm hoping there will be a PR at the 4 mile race as well. The half was pretty small, but I almost ran the plan, which was nice. The plan was to go out at my goal marathon pace for the first half, and then pick it up after the u-turn. At the u-turn, I was a total of about 30 seconds ahead of marathon pace, and then on the second half, I was only about another 30 seconds total faster on the way back (over 6.5 miles, that's really not much), but the thrilling and unexpected results were a PR by 30 seconds and an AG award!!! My prior half PR had been in place since 2010. This race was only on average 10 seconds per mile faster than my goal marathon pace, but for right now, I'll take it!
And now, Monday again. Highlights this week are that the summer series of 6 weeks of evening track meets begins tomorrow, and I will be competing in my first ever beer mile on Thursday night. Let's hope for no vomit.
If you’ve taken part in FMM then you know the rules. If you’re new, please take a moment to answer this week’s question on your own blog then add your link in the comments section at: www.alltheweigh.com so we can all see your FMM questions and answers. Please invite your blog readers to add their links here too so everyone has to opportunity to be seen. The idea is to connect with other awesome bloggers so take a moment to post your own FMM post and comment on a couple of other posts. Now it’s time for this week’s topic!
1. Do you use coupons? No. I'm sure I have before, but not with any regularity.
2. How often do you weigh yourself? I would say most mornings, and for the last couple years, I usually write it down on the first of the month. But for the last decade plus, I've always recorded my weight on both my birthday (late summer) and on New Year's Day, just so I can see the big picture.
3. What was your favorite TV show as a kid? I loved Facts of Life. I wanted to be like Blair but always thought I was a bit more like Jo.
4. How often do you drink alcohol? Right now, I'd say about twice a month, but that is probably (hopefully) going to go down next week when marathon training officially begins. I really want to buckle down this season. At most alcohol once a month, and then only a couple glasses. But this week has the beer mile, so that is 4 beers in one night, likely all within 10 minutes? 15? 20? I have no idea how long it will take. Ugh. Maybe vomit would be good in that case... And I'll also have wine at book club this coming Sunday, but that is looking like the last hurrah for me.
5. Have you ever met a celebrity or public figure that you really admire? Yes, thought I wouldn't say that I "really admire" most celebrities. A few that come to mind -- Sandra Day O'Connor, Meb Keflezighi, and Dean Karnazes, who I got to run with (with pictures) and posted about here.
6. If you had to choose between only your cell phone or only your laptop all week which would you choose? Hmm, since my laptop is my work computer, I'd have to choose the laptop, otherwise I'd be out of a job! But on vacation or something, I'd choose my cell phone.
7. What is your favorite brand of detergent? Laundry? I think we use liquid Tide.
8. If there was a movie about your life, who would play the role? My husband thinks Gillian Anderson is the celebrity who most resembles me -- more like this picture than something more recent.
9. What book are you currently reading? I am reading Lean In (I think I'm on page 75 or so) -- I want to know what it's all about and think I'd recommend that most people read it (at least most educated professionals), whether you agree or not. Very thought provoking. Though as someone who does not intend to have kids and pretty much insists on equal shares of household labor with my husband, perhaps I'm not the person who most needs to read this.
10. If you could spend one day on vacation anywhere in the world, which place would you choose? Today, I think I would choose the Seychelles. I feel kind of beachy, but I'd prefer something infinitely more exotic than the Caribbean.
Now it’s your turn to answer this week’s questions. Don’t forget to come back and link up in the comments, and say hi to someone new! Happy Monday!
My stepson is home with us for another few days and he cooked dinner Friday night -- very good. The main dish, however, was fish, which I can't eat. So it was really more dinner cooked for my husband, which he loved. And my stepson made tons of roasted vegetables that were for me.
Saturday was a low-key day. Hubby was on a cleaning tear and picked up lots of clutter and even did some garage floor cleaning. Wow! We went out to eat and generally spent a lot of time around the house. I don't know if I mentioned it, but I got promoted a few weeks ago. One of the attorneys I hire regularly for cases in Pennsylvania sent me some personalized M&Ms. My name on half of them, my new title on the other half. I made "promotion cookies" but one sheet resulted in disaster. Yikes!!! I couldn't even tell you what happened, I think I was using one hand it was just off balance. No burns, and fortunately just one sheet was lost.
Sunday was another race -- a half marathon this time. Did I mention that my schedule has races 6 weekends in a row, then one weekend off, then one more race? It will be a total of four 5ks, 2 half marathons, and one 4 mile race. I'm hoping there will be a PR at the 4 mile race as well. The half was pretty small, but I almost ran the plan, which was nice. The plan was to go out at my goal marathon pace for the first half, and then pick it up after the u-turn. At the u-turn, I was a total of about 30 seconds ahead of marathon pace, and then on the second half, I was only about another 30 seconds total faster on the way back (over 6.5 miles, that's really not much), but the thrilling and unexpected results were a PR by 30 seconds and an AG award!!! My prior half PR had been in place since 2010. This race was only on average 10 seconds per mile faster than my goal marathon pace, but for right now, I'll take it!
And now, Monday again. Highlights this week are that the summer series of 6 weeks of evening track meets begins tomorrow, and I will be competing in my first ever beer mile on Thursday night. Let's hope for no vomit.
If you’ve taken part in FMM then you know the rules. If you’re new, please take a moment to answer this week’s question on your own blog then add your link in the comments section at: www.alltheweigh.com so we can all see your FMM questions and answers. Please invite your blog readers to add their links here too so everyone has to opportunity to be seen. The idea is to connect with other awesome bloggers so take a moment to post your own FMM post and comment on a couple of other posts. Now it’s time for this week’s topic!
FMM: Questions and Answers
1. Do you use coupons? No. I'm sure I have before, but not with any regularity.
2. How often do you weigh yourself? I would say most mornings, and for the last couple years, I usually write it down on the first of the month. But for the last decade plus, I've always recorded my weight on both my birthday (late summer) and on New Year's Day, just so I can see the big picture.
3. What was your favorite TV show as a kid? I loved Facts of Life. I wanted to be like Blair but always thought I was a bit more like Jo.
4. How often do you drink alcohol? Right now, I'd say about twice a month, but that is probably (hopefully) going to go down next week when marathon training officially begins. I really want to buckle down this season. At most alcohol once a month, and then only a couple glasses. But this week has the beer mile, so that is 4 beers in one night, likely all within 10 minutes? 15? 20? I have no idea how long it will take. Ugh. Maybe vomit would be good in that case... And I'll also have wine at book club this coming Sunday, but that is looking like the last hurrah for me.
5. Have you ever met a celebrity or public figure that you really admire? Yes, thought I wouldn't say that I "really admire" most celebrities. A few that come to mind -- Sandra Day O'Connor, Meb Keflezighi, and Dean Karnazes, who I got to run with (with pictures) and posted about here.
6. If you had to choose between only your cell phone or only your laptop all week which would you choose? Hmm, since my laptop is my work computer, I'd have to choose the laptop, otherwise I'd be out of a job! But on vacation or something, I'd choose my cell phone.
7. What is your favorite brand of detergent? Laundry? I think we use liquid Tide.
8. If there was a movie about your life, who would play the role? My husband thinks Gillian Anderson is the celebrity who most resembles me -- more like this picture than something more recent.
9. What book are you currently reading? I am reading Lean In (I think I'm on page 75 or so) -- I want to know what it's all about and think I'd recommend that most people read it (at least most educated professionals), whether you agree or not. Very thought provoking. Though as someone who does not intend to have kids and pretty much insists on equal shares of household labor with my husband, perhaps I'm not the person who most needs to read this.
10. If you could spend one day on vacation anywhere in the world, which place would you choose? Today, I think I would choose the Seychelles. I feel kind of beachy, but I'd prefer something infinitely more exotic than the Caribbean.
Now it’s your turn to answer this week’s questions. Don’t forget to come back and link up in the comments, and say hi to someone new! Happy Monday!
Thursday, May 9, 2013
Worst of Both Worlds
So yesterday morning on my commute I think it got as bad as it can get -- it was sunny and raining at the same time. Ugh.
And I was utterly unprepared for the latter. Double ugh.
I have been newly wearing sunglasses (only about two weeks now?) when commuting. It's just getting so frigging sunny and warm in the evenings, I thought it might help.
And my commute in the morning is northeast (mostly north), and I run on the correct side of the street (left), meaning the eastward run is directly into the sun and the northward run has little shade (of course the wrong side of the street seems to have plenty).
And my commute in the evening is southwest (mostly south), and I run on the correct side of the street (left), meaning the westward run is directly into the sun and the southward run has little shade (of course the wrong side of the street seems to have plenty).
So anyway, I thought sunglasses would help. If I'd anticipated rain, I would have skipped the sunglasses and instead worn a cap to keep most of the rain off my face, I would have put my cell phone in a ziplock inside of the ifitness belt, and I'd have worn shoes I don't mind getting wet.
But instead, I wore sunglasses, new-ish shoes, no hat, and phone (face out) in the belt. After about a mile, I noticed that the sky to my left seemed very dark.
I got hit with a couple random drops of rain and I actually looked at them -- I seriously thought they each could be bird $hit since there was no way it would actually rain.
But by 1.5 miles, sure enough, it was coming down -- but it was still sunny! So frustrating. I've been lucky to dodge the rain almost every single commute (and I think I'm at about 60 commutes total now). Dallas isn't a rainy place, so that's not too crazy, but there have still been several mornings where I've felt lucky to dodge it.
So yesterday I did it -- I ran in the rain and in the sun. Thankfully no lightning, but still a P-I-T-A. And of course that meant my clothes didn't really dry off before I had to run home.
Oh well, just felt like bitching.
And I was utterly unprepared for the latter. Double ugh.
I have been newly wearing sunglasses (only about two weeks now?) when commuting. It's just getting so frigging sunny and warm in the evenings, I thought it might help.
And my commute in the morning is northeast (mostly north), and I run on the correct side of the street (left), meaning the eastward run is directly into the sun and the northward run has little shade (of course the wrong side of the street seems to have plenty).
And my commute in the evening is southwest (mostly south), and I run on the correct side of the street (left), meaning the westward run is directly into the sun and the southward run has little shade (of course the wrong side of the street seems to have plenty).
So anyway, I thought sunglasses would help. If I'd anticipated rain, I would have skipped the sunglasses and instead worn a cap to keep most of the rain off my face, I would have put my cell phone in a ziplock inside of the ifitness belt, and I'd have worn shoes I don't mind getting wet.
But instead, I wore sunglasses, new-ish shoes, no hat, and phone (face out) in the belt. After about a mile, I noticed that the sky to my left seemed very dark.
I got hit with a couple random drops of rain and I actually looked at them -- I seriously thought they each could be bird $hit since there was no way it would actually rain.
But by 1.5 miles, sure enough, it was coming down -- but it was still sunny! So frustrating. I've been lucky to dodge the rain almost every single commute (and I think I'm at about 60 commutes total now). Dallas isn't a rainy place, so that's not too crazy, but there have still been several mornings where I've felt lucky to dodge it.
So yesterday I did it -- I ran in the rain and in the sun. Thankfully no lightning, but still a P-I-T-A. And of course that meant my clothes didn't really dry off before I had to run home.
Oh well, just felt like bitching.
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
Another Marathon Registration
I just did something kind of crazy:
Yes, that's my registration for the Houston Marathon in January. It's been on my list of marathons that I want to run for years. But I've never pulled the trigger because of horrible timing for me.
The marathon is held on Jan. 19 -- which means training over Christmas. I think I could handle that if we stayed in town for the holidays, but we don't. Actually, that marathon date is particularly inconvenient because we go home to see my parents in the great white north for about a week for Christmas. And after about a solid decade of running now, I have only motivated myself maybe twice EVER to run outside there over Christmas, and maybe about 10 times EVER at the gym up there on a treadmill. They usually have several feet of snow and it's insanely cold. I have a series of pictures of the car thermometer when we drive to church on Christmas Eve and one year I remember it saying -25. As in -25 not counting wind chill. Dear God, that's why I moved to Texas!
The thought of running in sub-zero temperatures, or pounding out 20 miles on a treadmill ... eh, I really can't see either happening in all honesty.
And to make matters worse, this year, there is a chance we will spend the week of Christmas with my folks up north, and then fly directly to visit hubby's parents in Pittsburgh for another week or so leading up to New Year's. We did that one other year and I didn't enjoy it at all -- it was hard to pack up all our gifts and everything and then not fly home. But since it's really important to me that we spend Christmas with my family, I've told hubby I am willing to be with his family all 362 or so other days of the year (actually, Christmas Eve and the day after are also really important to me). So if he wants to go straight to Pittsburgh, there's no way I'm going to fight it.
But I really can't imagine what would happen to my training if I took about 2 weeks off less than a month before the marathon. It's slightly easier for me to run when we go see his family. It's usually not as cold there in the winter, and there's never as much snow (and they live in a more suburban area anyway, so streets are plowed and there are sidewalks). And I also don't mind the gym/treadmill setup there. Maybe it's because I love my folks more than I do his? It's painful for me to spend 2 hours running at the gym when I could be home with my mama, but somehow it's easier when I'm with the in-laws (and don't get me wrong, I really love them too). Aye, maybe I shouldn't admit that, but I suppose it's normal.
Anyway... so registering for Houston is going to mean 6 very difficult weeks of training between the Dallas Marathon (aka White Rock) on Dec. 8 and Houston on Jan. 19. I'm not planning to run the full at White Rock, but many friends will, and then I won't have many people to run with when that's over. It will be hard to avoid having motivation and mileage take a serious hit beginning on Dec. 9.
Oh well, it will be a challenge, but it will be nice to cross Houston off my list!
And I get to stay at my favorite hotel in Houston, which was where I practically lived for much of the first year after I met my husband and before we started dating (I was semi-permanently there for never-ending depositions for work). And it should be a great race. So it was a good decision, even if it means my fall running plan would be considered totally crazy by many...
The marathon is held on Jan. 19 -- which means training over Christmas. I think I could handle that if we stayed in town for the holidays, but we don't. Actually, that marathon date is particularly inconvenient because we go home to see my parents in the great white north for about a week for Christmas. And after about a solid decade of running now, I have only motivated myself maybe twice EVER to run outside there over Christmas, and maybe about 10 times EVER at the gym up there on a treadmill. They usually have several feet of snow and it's insanely cold. I have a series of pictures of the car thermometer when we drive to church on Christmas Eve and one year I remember it saying -25. As in -25 not counting wind chill. Dear God, that's why I moved to Texas!
The thought of running in sub-zero temperatures, or pounding out 20 miles on a treadmill ... eh, I really can't see either happening in all honesty.
And to make matters worse, this year, there is a chance we will spend the week of Christmas with my folks up north, and then fly directly to visit hubby's parents in Pittsburgh for another week or so leading up to New Year's. We did that one other year and I didn't enjoy it at all -- it was hard to pack up all our gifts and everything and then not fly home. But since it's really important to me that we spend Christmas with my family, I've told hubby I am willing to be with his family all 362 or so other days of the year (actually, Christmas Eve and the day after are also really important to me). So if he wants to go straight to Pittsburgh, there's no way I'm going to fight it.
But I really can't imagine what would happen to my training if I took about 2 weeks off less than a month before the marathon. It's slightly easier for me to run when we go see his family. It's usually not as cold there in the winter, and there's never as much snow (and they live in a more suburban area anyway, so streets are plowed and there are sidewalks). And I also don't mind the gym/treadmill setup there. Maybe it's because I love my folks more than I do his? It's painful for me to spend 2 hours running at the gym when I could be home with my mama, but somehow it's easier when I'm with the in-laws (and don't get me wrong, I really love them too). Aye, maybe I shouldn't admit that, but I suppose it's normal.
Anyway... so registering for Houston is going to mean 6 very difficult weeks of training between the Dallas Marathon (aka White Rock) on Dec. 8 and Houston on Jan. 19. I'm not planning to run the full at White Rock, but many friends will, and then I won't have many people to run with when that's over. It will be hard to avoid having motivation and mileage take a serious hit beginning on Dec. 9.
Oh well, it will be a challenge, but it will be nice to cross Houston off my list!
And I get to stay at my favorite hotel in Houston, which was where I practically lived for much of the first year after I met my husband and before we started dating (I was semi-permanently there for never-ending depositions for work). And it should be a great race. So it was a good decision, even if it means my fall running plan would be considered totally crazy by many...
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